The EUROfusion TIMES Model (ETM) is an economic model of the global energy system based on the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) Framework. The development of the ETM within SERF (Socio Economic Research on Fusion) started in 2004.General scope of the model is the identification of trends in the development of the global energy system with a special focus on fusion power shares in the energy system on the long run (time horizon up to 2100).
The TIMES economic model generator in which ETM is implemented is a technology-rich tool, intended for the investigation of the local, national or multi-regional energy system evolvement over a long time period. The EUROfusion TIMES model is specifically designed to explore the role of fusion technology in a future energy market and identify which parameters affect its market competitiveness. The model time horizon covers the time range from 2005 (the base year) to 2100 and assumes that from 2050 on fusion power plants are likely to be ready for the market. The model setup is defined by a list of energy carriers and technologies involved in each sector of the energy system (upstream, industry, residential-commercial-agriculture, transportation and electricity and heat production), in the sense of a reference energy system. The Reference Energy System (RES) defines the total set of available energy conversion technologies in the model. In this set of available technologies specific technological and economic additionally quantitative assumptions for each technology, region and year, and their corresponding environmental emissions are provided. Each scenario generated can be interpreted as a picture of a likely future originate from a set of coherent hypothesis on the trajectories of the main socio-economic drivers of an energy system (e.g population, GDP, …), and a set of constraints, such as upper bound on GHGs emissions or upper/lower bound of installed capacity of a specific technology. ETM actually creates and manages an energy market, where a perfect competition among commodities is assumed unless market imperfections, namely taxes, subsidies and hurdle rates, are introduced as assumptions. The objective lies in the identification of the energy system configuration over a certain time horizon with the maximal net total economic surplus or, similarly, with minimal net total system costs, while satisfying all given constraints.